Situación Siria - The «Blitzkrieg» of HTS 2024
Example of a geo-referenced evaluation

Within 12 days, the situation in Syria has changed completely. From the Russian-backed Assad regime to a government under the Islamist militia Hajat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - which emerged from the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front in 2017 and is listed internationally as a terrorist organisation - that cannot yet be conclusively assessed. Its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, the head of HTS, is still wanted internationally and has a bounty of 10 million dollars on his head from the USA. At the same time, almost all actors in Syria have established contacts with him in order to represent their interests and swear the new government to a policy that suits them. This applies in particular to:

• Turkey, which has significantly supported the HTS and favourably encouraged its emergence in the Turkish-controlled part of Syria. In addition to territorial interests, Turkey's interests are the suppression of the Kurdish-dominated semi-autonomous northern Syria, which Turkish troops have partially occupied for years, and the
• USA, which maintains two bases on the Jordanian border (At Tanf and Zaqaf) as well as three further bases in the Kurdish-controlled oil regions. It is currently focussed on oil production and supports the YPF - a Kurdish militia that has distinguished itself in the fight against the Islamic State but which, according to Turkish interpretation, is an offshoot of the Kurdish PKK.
• Israel would like to expand its territorial control in Syria to get closer to its goal of ‘Erez Israel’.
• Russia is endeavouring to maintain its two bases in Syria, as Tartus is the only base in the Mediterranean for the fleet and the airbase in Hmeimin, near Latarkia, is an important bridgehead for transports to Africa. Russia had intervened in the war against ISIS in September 2015 at the invitation of the Syrian government, which was decisive after years of indecisive fighting, also because it stopped ISIS's illegal oil transport to Turkey through airstrikes, thus causing the Islamic State's income to dry up considerably.
• The Arab Sunni monarchies, which Iraq and Syria had opposed since the fall of their respective monarchs, in Syria as early as 24 July 1920 through direct intervention by the French Mandate, in Iraq on 14 July 1958. Both countries were close after the Baath Party gained independence, which developed into an Arab nationalist and secular party, especially under the influence of the Egyptian revolution against King Faruk on 23 July 1952 and the government of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Despite the split in the Baath Party between the two states and internal power struggles in the two wings of the party, the political orientation remained the same. The other monarchies in the region felt threatened by this development and intervened directly and indirectly financially and militarily to overthrow the government, which they considered to be more Sunni-influenced. There is clear evidence of payments from the Arab monarchies to Islamist organisations, as well as
• The Islamic State, which has pockets of resistance in the governorates of Hama, Ar-Raqqah, Deir Ez-Zor and Homs.

These different interests of the actors involved in the HTS takeover in Syria mean that it is not yet clear how the new Syrian government will develop in this area of power. However, it is already clear that all non-Sunni population groups, such as Alawites, Yezidis, Christians and other groups, mainly located in the western part of the country, will be the losers in this development. Will they become our new Syrian asylum seekers?

ALso the situation of the Kurds cannot be conclusively assessed either, as the previous partial support of the USA may change after Trump takes office, and Turkish politics and its military are closer and already active.

But now to the interpretation of the maps.

Map 1 - Population distribution in Syria in 2021

The population distribution is shown here. The data is only shown in the background in the following maps. However, it should be noted that the Kurdish population is concentrated in the north and north-east, while the eastern and south-eastern areas are only sparsely populated.

Map 2 - Situation on 27 November 2024

Depicts the initial situation before the start of the HTS fighting against the Assad government. Turkey's zone of influence, coloured purple here, is made up as follows:

• Kurdish-Syrian areas directly occupied by Turkish troops that border directly on Turkey. This includes the occupation of the northern parts of the Idlib governorate in 2015/16, the occupation of the area around Afrin in 2017 and the occupation of the northern parts of the Ar-Raqqah and Al-Hasakah governorates in 2019.
• Another part of the Idlib governorate, to which anti-Assad groups withdrew and which was designated as their zone (HTS) in negotiations with the Syrian government. Turkish and Russian troops monitored the observance of the fragile peace on the border between the two hostile groups; internally, this area is under HTS and Turkish control.

Isolated exclaves of ISIS groups continue to exist in the sparsely populated areas.

Through its support for the YPF, the USA has three bases in the Kurdish-controlled north-eastern part of Syria, where it says it is protecting oil production facilities, as well as in the south in the At Tanf region, which is supplied from Jordan and supports rebel groups there.

It should also be mentioned that there has been a UN buffer zone adjacent to the illegally Israeli-occupied territory of Syria since 1967, which is intended to prevent military clashes between Syrian and Israeli troops. The UN troops in this zone were repeatedly targeted by Israeli military strikes before 27 November 2024, which also led to fatalities among the UN troops.

The majority of the country was under the control of the Assad government.

Map 3 - Situation on 12/01/2024

The HTS attacking from the north achieves considerable territorial gains around Aleppo and in the direction of Hamah, occupying the majority of Aleppo. The Kurdish enclave south-east of Afrin is also attacked by HTS units, the Kurds attempt to withdraw to Aleppo with the remaining forces of Assad.

At the same time, US and Israeli airstrikes begin to attack the positions of Assad's troops and thus serve as the ‘air force of the HTS’, as has already been done several times in other countries to support insurgents.

Map 4 - Situation on 05/12/2024

The city of Aleppo has been completely captured by the HTS and further areas in the south-east of the city are under HTS control. Parts of the Kurdish areas in the east are also occupied.

It is a relatively normal course of events, the territorial gains of the HTS are still moderate, the Assad government announces a regrouping of its military units.

Map 5 - Situation on 07/12/2024

The HTS units advance on Homs and reach the suburbs of the city.

What is more interesting, however, is that significant military operations were carried out from both the US and Jordanian-controlled border areas in the south. For example, opponents of the regime have captured the important railway junction of Al Qaryatayn from the US-controlled zone and thus, in addition to the US airstrikes on the Assad troops, have considerably reduced their freedom of movement. In this exclave, as well as around Daraa, there were no HTS units, but rather anti-Assad groups that have not yet been directly named.

It is also clear that ISIS has significantly expanded the areas under its control and has actively intervened in the fighting against government troops.

Map 6 - Situation on 12/08/2024

The Syrian Assad government has fallen, the units of Assad's opponents have taken Damascus and Assad has fled the country. It is questionable whether the occupation of Damascus was carried out by the HTS or the units advancing from the south, whereby the latter is more likely due to the geographical proximity and the rapid advance of the previous day.

At the same time, the Israeli military occupied the UN buffer zone and is preparing to remain there for a longer period of time.

The question remains, what will become of Syria? The record of the West's regime change policy to date is not exactly positive - Somalia, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq ... failed states!

And there is already a lot of discussion and speculation* - the new government will not be able to fulfil all the demands and expectations of the various interest groups, then the groups will once again pursue their own agendas - and in the worst case scenario for all interested parties, there will be a civil war.

The real story of this change of power will only be written in a few months - perhaps years.

• Was there collusion between the USA, Turkey and Israel for this military action?
• Why did the Syrian army, nominally almost 300,000 man strong, not take action?
• Was a deal struck with parts of the army leadership for the takeover?

* The upheaval in Syria, its background and possible consequences - in German

The geographical data on the maps is based on publications by the Spanish newspaper ‘El Pais’.